As Whitman and Brown dance toward the political center, they risk alienating their bases
Source: Ken McLaughlin & Steve Harmon/Media News Group
When Meg Whitman went on the air last week with two red-meat-conservative talk show hosts, they mercilessly grilled the Republican on what they called inexcusable shifts on immigration and the state's landmark global warming bill.
The drubbing was so bad that many listeners of "The John & Ken Show'' pronounced that they'd never vote for such a namby-pamby candidate.
Less than three months before the general election, Whitman is experiencing the perils of what every major party candidate for governor in California must endure during a fall campaign: the risk of dancing toward the political center. It's a necessary gamble in a state where most voters say they are "moderates" and one in five people decline to state a political allegiance when they register to vote, political experts say. Still, as Whitman and -- to a lesser extent her Democratic opponent, Jerry Brown -- woo voters in the middle, they are discovering how far they can go to grab as much from the center before they start alienating their bases. And in the age of often-ideological 24-hour cable news, bloviating bloggers, radio broadcasts that live forever in digital form and smartphones recording a candidate's every word, "what's different is that there are just so many ways to catch you doing that dance,'' said Sherry Bebitch Jeffe, a veteran political analyst at the University of Southern California. Last week in their Burbank studio, John Kobylt and Ken Chiampou used their 50,000-watt megaphone to grill Whitman on illegal immigration and AB 32, California's global-warming law. AB 32 was a whipping boy in the Republican primary, but recent polls by Field and the Public Policy Institute of California show it's still popular with independent voters and the electorate as a whole.
Pressed by her hosts, Whitman said she would "in all likelihood'' vote no on Proposition 23, a November ballot initiative sponsored by oil companies that would indefinitely suspend the 4-year-old law that both Whitman and her primary opponent, Steve Poizner, had attacked as a "job killer." Discussing Arizona's new law aimed at deporting illegal immigrants who have run-ins with police, the hosts chastised the eBay billionaire for trying to have it both ways. They noted that Whitman has run a Spanish-language ad saying she opposes the Arizona law but recently told a different conservative talk-show host that the feds should let the law stand. "States' rights have to preside here,'' Whitman said on "The John & Ken Show.'' Brown, the attorney general, has also drawn criticism from his base as he steers toward the center. In San Francisco in late July, Latino activists protested outside the attorney general's office, calling on Brown to renounce his support of a federal program that has led to the deportation of thousands. Brown had rejected the county of San Francisco's request to opt out of the program, called Secure Communities, which requires state and local law enforcement authorities to inform immigration enforcement agents when illegal immigrants are booked into the local jail. Brown has also criticized San Francisco for calling itself a "sanctuary'' for illegal immigrants. "It could be that he's taking the (Latino) community for granted,'' said Renee Saucedo, a lawyer with La Raza Centro Legal in Oakland. "He has to be held accountable for what he's instituting." Still, the "dance'' is a lot tougher for Whitman, simply "because she had a competitive primary and Jerry Brown didn't,'' said John Pitney, a politics and government professor at Claremont McKenna College. That meant she had to win the primary by taking hard-line conservative positions that now need finessing. In addition, analysts say, Whitman may be dealing with a less forgiving base, determined to push itscandidate beyond the "post-partisan pragmatism'' of Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger. Whitman faces another problem that Brown doesn't -- talk radio, where conservative hosts rule the airwaves. "Their goal is not electing people to office -- their goal is ratings,'' said John Fleischman, Southern California vice chairman of the state Republican Party. Analysts and GOP officials say that much of the threat to not support Whitman is hot air -- that hard-core conservatives will hold their noses and return to the fold in November, particularly since Brown is the alternative. But if Whitman, who is moderate on social issues such as abortion and gay rights, continues to anger red-meat conservatives, the GOP could see fewer foot soldiers willing to walk precincts or work the phones on election day, Fleischman said. Mark DiCamillo, director of the Field Poll, and Mark Baldassare, president of the PPIC, say California's independents in recent years have consistently told pollsters that they lean Democratic. "And therein lies the challenge for the Republican in the race,'' Baldassare said. USC's Jeffe said that Whitman can keep her base energized by continuing to stress her fiscal conservatism and holding the line on taxes. "She's not talking about abortion. She's not talking about guns or same-sex marriage -- only if asked,'' Jeffe said. Brown's pension reform proposal -- which includes requiring larger employee contributions and boosting retirement ages -- has also prompted some griping from another core constituency -- labor. He's also irked liberals by refusing to support Proposition 19, the ballot measure to legalize marijuana. But any backlash won't amount to much more than grumbling, said Dave Low, a lobbyist for the California School Employees Association and chairman of a coalition of labor groups studying pension reform. "Even if we are somewhat unhappy, what are we going to do,'' Low said, "rush into Meg Whitman's arms?"